Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Surprising Championship Bid
A mere two months ago that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.