Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
