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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the top if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.